I have an example myself today when I was forecasting the wind. I forecasted under the MOS guidance for the GFS and the NAM. My professor then told me quite bluntly that it is never a good idea to forecast under the MOS guidance for wind because they are almost always too low. Any one here...
so much scary talks about Earl (it did hit hard some areas)-we (NY) were spared-I knew it 24 hrs prior to (my broken leg never lies about upcoming rain, wind or drastic weather changes. I felt nothing. So why can't that be more accurate. It irritates me like hell considering long weekend plans.
You watch the weather for a winter storm. They come on and are vague about it. Then they seem to gloat over snow fall totals (which unless you are a child looking for a snow day, an auto body shop, or are into skiing) is going to wreck your day. Then if the storm misses they say nothing. I am...