Rogers chatter
Rumours abound that Bell Canada is moving to match a new discount offering from chief rival Rogers Communications Inc. in what is amounting to a wireless price war that will benefit consumers, but threatens to drag down profits across the $16-billion industry.
Speculation, which began with a posting on a closely watched industry blog Wednesday, but quickly gained standing among analysts, suggests the country’s No.2 carrier will introduce lower-priced plans in its Solo brand.
It is uncertain when the new plans will be launched, but they may arrive at the end of the month or in August. That is when Rogers is expected to launch “chatr”, a discount brand aimed at taking share in the lower end of the wireless market.
If true, fellow incumbent Telus Corp. will have little choice but to follow the other two down, analysts say. What’s more, the downward chase will provoke new entrants already after those customers to retaliate by cutting their prices.
“This validates our concern that a price war may be looming in the second half of the year,” Jeff Fan, analyst a Scotia Capital said in an email message.
A Bell spokesman dismissed the rumours as “pure speculation.” Thane Fotopoulos, chief of investor relations, said it would be “premature to launch anything” because Bell has yet to see chatr’s pricing.
But according to several sources, Solo will replace its current plans with six new offerings ranging between $10 and $60 a month. Like chatr and plans sold by new entrants Wind, Mobilicity and Public Mobile, Solo will provide unlimited talk and text services with no contracts or subsidized handsets.
Rogers, the largest carrier in the country, said its new brand is aimed at “average to below average income” wireless users that want cheap and simple voice services.
It is the very segment the new entrants have been targeting.
“The goal here is to get some share,” said one analyst source. “It doesn’t do Bell much good if the reason why Wind, Mobilicity and Public Mobile aren’t having much sales success is because all of those types of consumers are going to a Rogers brand. They want to get a piece.”
Wireless newcomer Mobilicity said last week it would file a complaint with the Competition Bureau against Rogers over its chatr launch.
It appears Solo’s pricing could also undercut chatr’s, thought to be between $35 and $45/month.
Analysts anticipate a reaction from Vancouver-based Telus, which commands 29% of the national market compared with Rogers’ 37% share and Bell’s 30%. Telus may opt to bring yet another brand into the melee or use its Koodo service.
For new entrants, a direct fight for subscribers against three powerful incumbents operating shadow brands in key markets could be fatal for one or more, some analysts say.
“This battle might cause a bit of disruption for Rogers, Bell and Telus, but it could make ... business plans for the new entrants look even worse,” said one.
While Public Mobile contends it is fully funded, all the new players are likely in need of further investment to build out networks and ramp up marketing. It means the hunt for backers, domestic or otherwise, could be made tougher in the near term.
There is increasing concern a battle will take a greater toll on incumbents than previously thought. It appears that profit margins and revenue per subscriber are willing to be sacrificed to capture share and snuff out competitors.
It is leading a number of stock analysts to question whether a temporary retreat from the sector is warranted.
Data fees are considered crucial to offset declining voice prices. Unlike chatr, Solo’s new offering may include mobile modem sticks, which would pressure incumbent data pricing for the first time.
“We urge investors not to underestimate the competitive risk,” Canaccord Genuity’s Dvai Ghose said.
Read more: Chatter grows that Bell will join discount war