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The NFL might be the most fluid of our major sports (and our major fantasy sports). Don't write too many opinions down in pen; you might feel very different in a month, or two weeks, or two hours. That's just the nature of the beast.
With that in mind, crunching running back strength of schedule comes with a whole bunch of caveats. A laughable sieve in the first half of the year might not be so bad in December (hello, Buffalo). On the flip side, Minnesota's run stopping looked a lot better in the first quarter than it does right now.
And when we analyze outlier talents at running back, the superstars and the scrubs, strength of schedule might be completely irrelevant. Right now I'd start Adrian Peterson against the second coming of the 1985 Bears, even if you allowed the defense to use 15 players per snap. And there's no matchup juicy enough to make me want to try Peyton Hillis or Rashad Jennings. Let's keep this exercise in perspective.
The schedules are ranked from easiest to hardest. You want to be on the top of this list. And the ranks are only tied to the schedules; they have nothing to do with the skill players (or offensive lines) on tap.
Running Back Strength of Schedule, Weeks 14-16
1. Bears: @MIN, GB, @ARI
2. Texans: @NE, IND, MIN
3. Lions: @GB, @ARI, ATL
4. Cardinals: @BUF, MIN, @TB
5. Giants: NO, @ATL, @BAL
6. Buccaneers: PHI, @NO, STL
7. Panthers: ATL, @SD, OAK
8. Bills: STL, SEA, @MIA
9. Titans: @IND, NYJ, @GB
10. Jaguars: NYJ, @MIA, NE
11. Packers: DET, @CHI, TEN
12. Chiefs: @CLE, @OAK, IND
13. Broncos: @OAK, @BAL, CLE
14. Cardinals: @SEA, DET, CHI
15. Redskins: BAL, @CLE, @PHI
16. Seahawks: ARI, @BUF, SF
17. Dolphins: @SF, JAC, BUF
18. Bengals: DAL, @PHI, @PIT
19. Jets: @JAC, @TEN, SD
20. Niners: MIA, @NE, @SEA
21. Steelers: SD, @DAL, CIN
22. Falcons: @CAR, NYG, @DET
24. Cowboys: @CIN, PIT, NO
25. Saints: @NYG, TB, @DAL
26. Eagles: @TB, CIN, WAS
27. Colts: TEN, @HOU, @KC
28. Raiders: DEN, KC, @CAR
29. Browns: KC, WAS, @DEN
30. Vikings: CHI, @STL, @HOU
31. Patriots: HOU, SF, @JAC
32. Ravens: @WAS, DEN, NYG
A few notes about the team defensive rankings with respect to giving up fantasy rushing production.
-- Better Than You Might Think: Giants, Bengals, Browns, Eagles, Dolphins.
-- Worse Than You Might Think: Vikings, Seahawks, Packers, Falcons.
-- Staunch, As You'd Expect: Texans, Steelers (also lockdown against pass catchers), Jets, Niners.
-- Bad, As You'd Expect: Raiders, Titans, Saints.
-- Close To Neutral: Redskins (everyone prefers to throw on them), Lions, Chiefs, Cardinals.
With the general team comments out of the way, let's examine some specific players.
? Forte's the logical lead at the top as the Bears have the best remaining rushing SOS per the special sauce. The Vikings might not be a true giveaway on a per-snap basis, but the problems with Minnesota's offense (looking at you, Christian Ponder) have allowed opponents to pile on the volume. Forte's ordinary history with Green Bay deserves consideration (h/t, Andy Behrens), but if the Packers don't heal quickly, maybe that's not a big issue.
? No one needs a nudge with Arian Foster, obviously. He's not having a dynamic per-snap season either, but the team feeds him at the goal and plays with a lead more often than not. (Ben Tate? He was droppable a solid month ago, gamers.)
? I want to buy in with Mikel Leshoure, but Joique Bell just won't go away. Then again, every week I try Bell as a desperation flex it turns into one of the weeks he's on the Schwartz Double Secret Probation list. Sometimes you can't win.
? I'm eager to see how the Giants handle their backfield going forward (starting Monday night at Washington), because someone needs to scoop up all those short touchdowns that Andre Brown was giving us on a regular basis. Ahmad Bradshaw is decisive enough to run effectively in short yardage, but do the Giants want to subject him to the extra punishment? And how much does the coaching staff trust rookie David Wilson right now?
? The Panthers are No. 7, but I wouldn't start any of their runners on a bet. Although DeAngelo Williams was effective in Week 13 while Jonathan Stewart didn't dress, Carolina only let Williams rush the ball 12 times.
? It should be fun watching Bryce Brown go up against Tampa's top-ranked rushing defense (per the NFL stats, anyway) next week. The Bucs are first in YPC allowed and YPG allowed (the first stat tells you more). It's pretty clear Shady McCoy won't play in Week 14, and I think there's a decent chance we won't see him again in 2012. The Eagles are clearly in evaluation mode right now, especially with Nick Foles confirmed to start the rest of the season.
? The Raiders schedule looked a lot different a month ago, but the Chiefs rushing defense has rallied nicely and the Broncos are a nasty group on all three levels. Throw in the enigmatic Darren McFadden and the mess behind him (just when I bought in on Marcel Reece, he shifted back to a blocking role) and you have a rushing quagmire on your hands. Another par for the worst organization in football.
Feel free to discuss your favorite backfield picks and pans in the comments, and I'll add some Week 13-specific observations shortly. Hope the pre-playoff week was good to you.