I would have to say Christian Ponder. They played Green Bay in week 7 and lost only by 6 points, 33-27. He was the starter in that game and played extraordinarily well.
First things first, take Gabbert out completely, every time that team wins his input has literally nothing to do with it. Now that I got that out of my system, I think the records speak for themselves here, Dalton to me is the clear choice. And lets also remember this, Newton has Williams and Stewart to throw the defense off as well as Smith who gives him 100 yds per game. Ponder has AP to throw defenses off as well as Percy Harvin as a very reliable reciever. HeII I'll even put Gabbert back into the equation just to make this point, Gabbert has MJD in the back field for the blue moons when Jacksonville throws. Dalton's best target is a rookie (granted a rookie with no limit to his potential, but still a rookie) as well as a running back who really wont pick up more than 70 yards a game.
Don't get me wrong, Cinci's defense is why they are currently 6-3, but someone still has to lead his team downfield to give them the lead.