- Admin
- #1
For better or for worse, there’s an attraction to round numbers in sports.**
When someone scores that 50th goal, you keep the puck. Win a 300th game, they throw a party. Break into 1,000 yards rushing or receiving, it makes an impact. Wilt Chamberlain’s best scoring night was going to be magical either way, but there’s something cool about it landing exactly on 100 points.*
It can work in negative ways, too. Consider the Mendoza Line, the scarlet letter of baseball batting averages.*
Anyone can hit in the low .200s and look bad, but once you cross under .200, once you get south of Mendoza, that’s when the average really jumps up and down, starts attracting attention. Drop under .200, there’s nowhere to hide.*
Giancarlo Stanton can now relate. After Thursday’s 0-for-5 at Minnesota, he’s sitting at .197 for the year. While he did get unlucky on one sharply-hit ball, the other four outs came on strikeouts. (Meanwhile, Stanton’s teammates sprung for 10 runs on 18 hits. The four men ahead of Stanton in the order — the amazing Ichiro Suzuki, Martin Prado, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna — are all hitting over .300).
Stanton defenders will point to his .247 BABIP, but come on, let’s be better than that. Stanton’s made a lot of his bad luck. His line-drive rate has collapsed to 13.8 percent (easily the worst of his career) and his hard-hit percentage has dropped by over nine percent. He’s also striking out an insane 35 percent of the time, easily the worst clip of his career.*
Health could be playing into Stanton’s extended slump. He had a sore knee in Spring Training, and he recently missed about a week with a side injury.*
And to be fair, all the stats in his batted ball profile are more descriptive than predictive — they represent why he has the ugly average at the moment, but it doesn’t mean it can’t change at any moment. Surely no one wants to turn this around more than Stanton. Everything in this game is constantly fluid; players make adjustments, gain and lose confidence, etc. We’re very good at telling you where the puck has been; it’s not nearly as easy to say where it’s going.*
Nonetheless, I’m out on Stanton. I’m not a sympathizer; I wasn’t before the year and I’m certainly not now. The spectacle of Stanton, those mammoth home runs, tend to be overrated in the public eye. Can we be confident about his health? Is Stanton done running (he doesn’t have a steal this year)? Did you notice how ordinary he tends to be in runs scored (the silent leak, so often underrated)? How many games do you feel confident projecting? He’s logged 123, 116, 145 and 74 games the last four seasons. Some injuries were clearly unavoidable bad luck, but I wouldn’t put everything into this file.*
Don’t tell me I’m killing your Stanton trade market, because plenty of pundits disagree with me on Stanton. You can find the right propaganda somewhere else, if that’s what you covet. I still think you can point to those 12 homers in 50 games and pique someone’s interest. Heck, it’s a logical play for a team in the second division (check this solid take from my buddy Steve Gardner); a fantasy team that needs to make a run from the bottom of the standings probably needs to consider boom-or-bust options like Stanton. He’s far less interesting to a team near the top, a team more concerned with floor than upside to this point.
The bat’s in your hands, Mario. Where do you stand on Stanton? Share your take in the comments.*More bulletry will follow shortly; maybe we'll give you a Prince Fielder spin, two Mendozas for the price of one.*
When someone scores that 50th goal, you keep the puck. Win a 300th game, they throw a party. Break into 1,000 yards rushing or receiving, it makes an impact. Wilt Chamberlain’s best scoring night was going to be magical either way, but there’s something cool about it landing exactly on 100 points.*
It can work in negative ways, too. Consider the Mendoza Line, the scarlet letter of baseball batting averages.*
Anyone can hit in the low .200s and look bad, but once you cross under .200, once you get south of Mendoza, that’s when the average really jumps up and down, starts attracting attention. Drop under .200, there’s nowhere to hide.*
Giancarlo Stanton can now relate. After Thursday’s 0-for-5 at Minnesota, he’s sitting at .197 for the year. While he did get unlucky on one sharply-hit ball, the other four outs came on strikeouts. (Meanwhile, Stanton’s teammates sprung for 10 runs on 18 hits. The four men ahead of Stanton in the order — the amazing Ichiro Suzuki, Martin Prado, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna — are all hitting over .300).
Stanton defenders will point to his .247 BABIP, but come on, let’s be better than that. Stanton’s made a lot of his bad luck. His line-drive rate has collapsed to 13.8 percent (easily the worst of his career) and his hard-hit percentage has dropped by over nine percent. He’s also striking out an insane 35 percent of the time, easily the worst clip of his career.*
Health could be playing into Stanton’s extended slump. He had a sore knee in Spring Training, and he recently missed about a week with a side injury.*
And to be fair, all the stats in his batted ball profile are more descriptive than predictive — they represent why he has the ugly average at the moment, but it doesn’t mean it can’t change at any moment. Surely no one wants to turn this around more than Stanton. Everything in this game is constantly fluid; players make adjustments, gain and lose confidence, etc. We’re very good at telling you where the puck has been; it’s not nearly as easy to say where it’s going.*
Nonetheless, I’m out on Stanton. I’m not a sympathizer; I wasn’t before the year and I’m certainly not now. The spectacle of Stanton, those mammoth home runs, tend to be overrated in the public eye. Can we be confident about his health? Is Stanton done running (he doesn’t have a steal this year)? Did you notice how ordinary he tends to be in runs scored (the silent leak, so often underrated)? How many games do you feel confident projecting? He’s logged 123, 116, 145 and 74 games the last four seasons. Some injuries were clearly unavoidable bad luck, but I wouldn’t put everything into this file.*
Don’t tell me I’m killing your Stanton trade market, because plenty of pundits disagree with me on Stanton. You can find the right propaganda somewhere else, if that’s what you covet. I still think you can point to those 12 homers in 50 games and pique someone’s interest. Heck, it’s a logical play for a team in the second division (check this solid take from my buddy Steve Gardner); a fantasy team that needs to make a run from the bottom of the standings probably needs to consider boom-or-bust options like Stanton. He’s far less interesting to a team near the top, a team more concerned with floor than upside to this point.
The bat’s in your hands, Mario. Where do you stand on Stanton? Share your take in the comments.*More bulletry will follow shortly; maybe we'll give you a Prince Fielder spin, two Mendozas for the price of one.*