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No matter what happens over the final four days, it's been one of the buzziest trade deadlines in several years. And on Friday night, the other cleat dropped on Zack Greinke. Brewers GM Doug Melvin kept his trade promise, shipping Greinke to Anaheim for three well-regarded Angels prospects.
It looks like a good move for Greinke on the surface, even with the AL environment coming into play. The Angels ballpark has been far more forgiving than Miller Park over the last 3.5 years, and the AL West is a reasonable division otherwise (Seattle and Oakland have unthreatening parks, while Arlington is an offensive party - more on that in a second). Throw in the supporting cast the Angels have (strong defense, excellent bullpen, superhero Mike Trout, etc.) and Greinke should be a star in his new city.
That said, Greinke always strikes me as a difficult commodity to understand at times. The playability of Miller Park never bothered him over the last year and change; he was 11-0 at home last year with a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, compared to a 5-6 mark with 4.70 and 1.29 ratios on the road. This year, more of the same: 4-0 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in front of Bernie Brewer, and 5-3, 4.09 and 1.39 numbers when out of a suitcase. The full stat story is more complicated that that, obviously, but the ratio split is a befuddling one.
Greinke has also been a bit of a peripheral tease for the last three seasons. His final Kansas City ERA was 4.17, well under the 3.34 FIP and 3.60 xFIP suggested. Last year was a crazy haul for Greinke, as his 3.83 out-the-door number lagged behind the 2.98 and 2.56 estimates. This year, he's carrying a 3.44 ERA compared to a 2.51 FIP and 2.79 xFIP, despite a strong push down in his HR/FB rate and a kick forward in his ground-ball rate. The overall stat package still plays for anyone in any format, you just get the sense he could be even better.
The initial schedule is going to slot nicely for Greinke. He'll make his Angels debut Sunday at home against the Rays, then he works at Chicago and Oakland. The Angels have a series in Arlington that he'll miss completely. If Greinke is going to face the Rangers down the stretch, it won't come until the final weekend of the year. There's a good chance Greinke will also pitch in Fenway Park in August, but otherwise the remaining slate looks unthreatening.
In AL-only pools, you know what to do: fire up the FAAB machine and throw everything at this guy. This is the best single option you're likely to see. As for mixed-league owners, I think your ace might be a little better down the stretch, though you never know how variance and luck will play out over the final two months. The setup is good, the environment is good.
Greinke is a free agent after the year, of course, so this could be an expensive rental for the Halos. But I don't think they would have made this move if they didn't think they at least had a chance of retaining Greinke. It's impossible to project all that contract stuff until we see how team and player fit for the next two months. Settle in, the AL West is going to be a blast down the stretch.