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Just in case you’d forgotten, a serious Andy-Dalton-for-MVP movement existed last year. It was a real thing — and not necessarily an illogical thing. He was great.
After Cincinnati’s twelfth game last season, Dalton had a passer rating of 107.4. He was averaging 8.4 yards per attempt while completing 66.1 percent of his throws. The Bengals were a 10-2 team, challenging for home field advantage in the AFC. Dalton was on pace to finish with 4255 passing yards, 33 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, numbers that would have been career bests across the board.
And then this happened, Dalton fractured his thumb and the MVP talk obviously ended. Cincinnati’s season would end with an appalling/improbable/hellish loss to the Steelers in the wild card round.
Here we are almost nine months later, and fantasy owners seem to be treating Dalton as if his excellent 2015 season was a complete mirage. As of this writing, he’s the No. 17 quarterback selected in a typical draft, going well outside the top-100 picks. That price, to me, seems crazy. Last year, the man finished as the No. 18 scorer at his position despite playing only three-quarters of the season. Dalton was consistently effective in 2015, to the point that it’s tough not to consider the gains to be real.
A.J. Green is still in the team picture, of course, and his presence is a nice safety net for Dalton. Green is a no-doubt first-round fantasy asset, a receiver who’s never finished with less than 1000 yards in any of his five pro seasons. Green has reached double-digit touchdowns in three of the past four years, and, considering the turnover in Cincy’s receiving corps, he seems likely to draw 150-plus targets in 2016. He appeared to tweak a knee in preseason action on Sunday, but it sounds like we (and he) have dodged a bullet. Draft early and enjoy.
Tyler Eifert is still recovering from ankle surgery after suffering an injury in the Pro Bowl, a game that really should not exist. We may not see Eifert for a few weeks…
#Bengals TE Tyler Eifert, who just started jogging, is targeting Weeks 4-6 for his return from ankle surgery, per source. His hope is Week 4
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 26, 2016
…so, if you’re drafting him, you’ll need to find an early-season placeholder. (Maybe Vance McDonald, maybe Virgil Green. Don’t look for options in Cincy.) Even if Eifert were completely healthy, he’d be a terrible bet to repeat last year’s touchdown total; 13 spikes on only 72 targets is insane. Let’s just hope he can find his way back and give us a dozen games. Health will always be a concern with Eifert, but he’s obviously a trusted red-zone weapon tied to a quality offense.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 26, 2016
Cincinnati’s ground game was a colossal disappointment in 2015, after the team ranked sixth in rushing (and second in rushing TDs) the year prior. Jeremy Hill followed an outstanding rookie season with a miserable sophomore effort, averaging only 3.6 yards per tote. You might recall that his late fumble set the stage for additional disasters in the Bengals’ brutal playoff loss. Hill has become a popular bounce-back candidate in 2016, although he’s gained just 3.8 YPC in the preseason. He remains the preferred rushing option at the goal-line for Cincinnati, a role that partially saved his fantasy value last year (12 TDs). He’s barely a rumor in passing situations, so he gets less interesting in PPR. At Hill’s recent ADP (37.5), I’m out. I’d prefer Melvin Gordon two rounds later (55.7). Or Chris Ivory at his current price (65.2), or Isaiah Crowell at his (90.4). Of course I was also roasted by Hill last season, so it’s tough to go back.
The Bengals D is very good up front, where Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap wreak devastation and mayhem. Cincy ranked as the league’s No. 2 scoring defense last season (17.4 PPG) and finished third in interceptions (21), but a lack of defensive TDs (1) prevented this group from making a significant fantasy contribution. Defensive fantasy scoring can be a little rough, too reliant on quirky plays. In any case, this defense is entirely ownable in our game, a top-12 unit on most cheat sheets.
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2015 Offensive Stats & Ranks
Points per game – 26.2 (7)
Pass YPG – 245.2 (15)
Rush YPG – 112.8 (13)
Yards per play – 5.6 (9)
Plays per game – 63.1 (25)
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Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) Cleveland, 31) San Francisco, 30) Philadelphia, 29) Baltimore, 28) Tennessee, 27) Los Angeles, 26) Miami, 25) Detroit, 24) Chicago, 23) San Diego, 22) Minnesota, 21) Tampa Bay, 20) Atlanta, 19) Washington, 18) Buffalo, 17) Kansas City, 16) Oakland, 15) NY Giants, 14) Indianapolis, 13) Jacksonville, 12) Houston, 11) Denver, 10) NY Jets, 9) Dallas, 8) Cincinnati