Closing Time: Pence deal good for Bourgeois, bad for Dom Brown

admin

Administrator
Joined
Jun 17, 2007
Messages
66,217
Reaction score
0
Points
36
Age
50
Location
Canada
closing_time_pence_deal_good_for_bourgeois_bad_for_dom_brown.jpg


</p>
The Phillies have been known as a veteran-favoring organization for a while, and they solidified that rep with their actions Friday. Settle in and let's discuss the Hunter Pence trade and the related fallout.

Pence was finally released from baseball purgatory a few hours before midnight, shipping to Philly in exchange for three minors leaguers (1B/OF Jonathan Singleton, RHP Jarred Cosart and RHP Josh Zeid; Houston will get a fourth, and lesser, prospect after the season). The bump to Pence's value is obvious: he's moving from a terrible lineup to one of the better ones in the NL, and he's also getting a better park to hit in. He's expected to slot fifth in the Philly order, right after Ryan Howard.

The Pence addition ultimately nixed Domonic Brown from the Philly equation. The club wants to stick with Raul Ibanez in left field for now, so Brown was returned to Triple-A so he can play every day. It's a little frustrating to see Brown stuck in neutral — he's got speed, age, and upside over Ibanez — but this is how the Phillies roll.



The Jason Bourgeois bandwagon might fill up nicely now that Pence has departed Houston. Bourgeois doesn't have the ideal profile for a corner outfielder — he's a singles hitter and a speed demon — but Houston's season has turned into community auditions anyway; they're a few years away from contending again. Bourgeois is on a 8-for-16 binge over the last four days, and he's hitting .370 for the season with 20 steals in just 52 games. The biggest key for Bourgeois is staying healthy, as he's missed time with quad, hamstring and oblique injuries the last two years. You can find him available in 93 percent of Yahoo! leagues, and anyone who runs this often should be strongly considered in most formats.

The Astros did well with their organizational re-load, as Singleton and Cosart are both blue-chip prospects, anywhere from 30-70 on the various ranking boards. They're both in High-A at the moment. Singleton, 19, already has a good eye and a decent stroke, and he should eventually develop mid-level power; think Bobby Abreu with less speed. Cosart, 21, has been discussed as a potential No. 1 starter down the road, though he's also had elbow problems in his brief career and might eventually slot better in the bullpen. Zeid is a tall right-handed reliever with a big fastball who's currently struggling in Double-A.

•*Erik Bedard's return from a knee injury didn't go as planned, as the Rays knocked him out in the second inning. Bedard walked four in his stint and only threw 28 of 57 pitches for strikes. Terrible timing for the Mariners, who would love to move Bedard to a contender before the non-waiver trade deadline closes. But the fine work Bedard did before his injury (3.00 ERA, just under a strikeout per inning) might be enough to entice one of the shopping teams. Being left-handed doesn't hurt the cause either.

Jeff Niemann was electric on the other side, striking out 11 Mariners over 6.2 scoreless innings (here's your scouting video). Niemann also had a 10-strikeout game against Boston two weeks back, and he's only allowed four runs over his last five turns. Maybe this is time to buy into a post-hype sleeper, given that Niemann was the fourth overall pick in 2004. He's at home against Oakland next week, an excellent spot, and you can grab him in 82 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

closing_time_pence_deal_good_for_bourgeois_bad_for_dom_brown.jpg
•*Edwin Jackson's St. Louis debut was smooth if not dominant, seven creamy-smooth innings (7 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K) en route to a victory over the Cubs. He's going to love working in this big park and throwing to Yadier Molina, and perhaps guru Dave Duncan can add anything subtle to Jackson's arsenal over the final two months. The righty gets Milwaukee for his next two turns, one on the road and one at home.

Corey Patterson and Jon Jay started in the outfield and atop the Cardinals lineup, though Patterson didn't finish the night and he was needed mostly because Lance Berkman is dinged up. When everyone is healthy here, Jay will probably settle in as the regular, getting the center field work. He's hitting a surprising .311 on the year, but there's modest category juice here (seven homers, five steals over 104 games). Add it all up and Jay is a borderline player in a standard mixer.

•*Rick Porcello continues to grow up before our eyes, inducing ground balls at a healthy rate and showing improvement with his secondary pitches (slider, change). The 22-year-old righty won his fifth consecutive start, strolling through eight strong innings (2 R, 0 BB, 6 K) against the Angels. He's allowed just 11 runs over this stretch, and while he's never going to be a big strikeout source, he's collected 24 whiffs against just five walks since the beginning of July. Next week's home start against Texas is a borderline call — the Rangers lineup has to be respected — but I like Porcello on the road at Cleveland the following week.

The Tigers supported their pitcher with 12 runs Friday, sparked by Carlos Guillen (double, triple, four RBIs) and Victor Martinez (three hits, four RBIs). Guillen has useful since returning 12 games ago, hitting .295 with 10 RBIs, but he's not a factor on the bases and he's a high-maintenance player for our purposes (he'll see a fair amount of rest days, so keep your caddy ready). And considering that Guillen hasn't played a full season since 2007, we can't call him anything other than a short-term fantasy rental.

•*Variance is a bitch for Bobby Parnell this month. He's still missing bats (15 strikeouts over 12.1 innings), but he's also allowed 14 hits and seven runs over his 12 appearances. The Nats got him for a couple of runs Friday, but it didn't matter in the end as Jason Isringhausen was perfect in the ninth (one strikeout, just eight pitches, handshake). Parnell is unlikely to see save chances in 2011 unless Izzy slumps or gets traded.

•*Josh Willingham was an all-or-nothing bat for about three months (solid pop, no average), but he's been the full package in July. Willingham knocked a couple of homers in Friday's loss to Minnesota (he's up to 15 for the year), and he's at .311/.427/.623 for the month, walking just as often as he strikes out. Willingham surprisingly hasn't minded Oakland's expansive park, where he has an .854 OPS. Maybe it's best that Willingham not move at the trade deadline — the A's need him as an everyday option in the middle of the lineup, but a better team would probably push Willingham to a less-interesting role.

•*Can we take Felipe Lopez seriously as Milwaukee's temporary second baseman? The newest Brewer got the call Friday, going 2-for-4 with a run scored from the No. 5 slot in the order. If he can keep that order position, I'll sign off on some deeper-league value here. Lopez is still just 31, and he was a handy player as recently as 2009 in Arizona. Lukewarm Lopez promotion to the side, the Brewers would be wise to kick the tires on several middle-infield options over the weekend; adding someone like Jamey Carroll or Adam Kennedy would make a lot of sense, even if it's just a depth move.

closing_time_pence_deal_good_for_bourgeois_bad_for_dom_brown.jpg
Everybody hurts:
Adrian Gonzalez (neck) sat Friday but should return Saturday. The news is more ominous with Clay Buchholz, who's seeing a back specialist Monday. Boston will try to add an arm of note this weekend, perhaps Bedard or Hiroki Kuroda. … Stephen Strasburg (elbow) is making excellent progress and has a shot to return to the Nats in late August or early September. Score one for modern medicine. …*Nelson Cruz (quad) is probably out through the weekend. But don't cry for Bradley Evans, as Billy Butler is on a mad tear (five homers in four games, two more Friday). … Kenley Jansen (irregular heartbeat) has been placed on the 15-day DL. Javy Guerra's leash gets a little bit longer. … Jed Lowrie (shoulder) should start a rehab assignment next week. … Al Alburquerque is dealing with a sore elbow and isn't available right now. … Clayton Richard (shoulder surgery) is done for the season. … Placido Polanco (back) should return Saturday, with Roy Oswalt (back) about a week away. … Ike Davis (ankle) did some running this week but he's still no sure thing to play again in 2011. … Denard Span (post-concussion) needs a few more days off, with a Tuesday return being considered. And it looks like the prospective Span for Drew Storen deal is dead in the water now. … Will Venable (back) didn't play Friday; he's also had hamstring problems this year. … Juan Uribe (abdomen) remains day-to-day. …*Jonathan Sanchez is looking at an Aug. 5 return.

------

Images courtesy Associated Press
 
Back
Top