Ignoring Christian or other doomsday prophecies, and just using math, what is...

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SomewhatEnlightened

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...the probability of the human? race surviving another 10 years?

You need to know a couple things at least: the limits of our resources, the probability (frequencies) of disease, famine, natural disasters and war occurring, and the impact of testosterone on any given population. Also the ratio of the skill level of the replacements (children) to the out-going (seniors) population.

Given only these factors, how likely is it that we are going to survive?

In spite of the optimistic outcome that might be extrapolated from the present trend of health and wealth of present day populations?
 
Man is resilient. We adapt to many situations and disasters. So WE WILL survive at lot longer than 10 years.
 
I would guess that calculating a rational probability would be unrealistic at this time. From a food versus population viewpoint, it is highly likely that if we continue current eating habits and agricultural & fishing practices, that we will not be able to feed most of the world's population by 2050.

Human survival for the next 10 or so years is very likely, but as we look 50 years and over, there are a variety of problems (mostly related to resource usage and impact on the environment) that will significantly change how we live and may threaten our survival as a species.
 
with all those dark ages and great depressions...
Our races was in worst things, don't worry : )
 
Either way you look at it.................we're goners........................it's over.................times up!
 
The earth surviving another ten years. I would hope that it last way longer than that because I want to have a family. I want a chance to be an adult. I want to live my life all the way through. Overall I want to fulfill the main dream that I have and that's to be one of the greatest artist alive. This will take time to accomplish. A lot of time. I'm still young and would hate it if the earth ends before I accomplish any of these. By the looks of things though I'd say the earth might go another 10 years. Remember before the earth ends the seven years of tribulation have to happen. I don't want to be around for that.
 
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