In basic probability theory, the expected value of your earnings should be $131 30 Rock tv series Stargate Universe boxed set,477.54. Therefore, you technically beat the game if you walk off stage with an amount greater than the expected value. Therefore, would you be willing to pay $131,477.54 to play the game? If you watch the show, your immediate answer would be no way. Based on your experiences of watching the show, most contestants walk away with a lot less, and even winning close to a $100,000 seems like a stretch. That's how the game gets you.Here's one scenario that I've witnessed while watching the show (similar situations have occurred numerous times). Imagine you have five suitcases left: $100, $400, $1 Weeds box set,000 The Simpsons series dvd, $50 Human Target complete series on dvd,000 and $300,000. Howie calls the banker and gives you an offer of $80 Doctor Who dvd Canada,000. What should you do?Walk away. The expected value of those cases is $70 American Pie 6 movies,300, so you would technically walk away as a winner, beating the game by almost $10,000 (if you compare that to the overall expected value of $131 Saw complete collection series,477.54, then you lost). But why would most people stay then? That's because they get lured in by the remaining $300 Golf Instruction tv series,000. They think to themselves there is a chance that they could walk away with $300,000 and compulsively reject the offer. They don't think about the odds, or what would happen if they opened the $300,000 case on the next attempt. However Felicity DVD UK, there is only a 20% chance that you will win that amount.Unfortunately, this person got greedy and rejected the offer. To sum up, there's a 100% chance that you win $80,000 compared to a 20% chance you win $300 The Tudors complete set,000 (thus an 80% chance that you win $30,000 or more less than the offer if you keep playing). What do you pick? This person ended up picking the $300,000 case and guess what the offer was? $21,000. Should you walk away? Of course, because the mean of the remaining cases is $12,875. Now, the highest amount you can win is $50 Star Trek The Next Generation dvd,000, and there is a 25% chance of that. Within minutes, the contestant "lost" almost $60,000 compared to the previous offer.The game really gets you when there is one high level case out there. People get sucked into trying to go for that case, despite the low probability. And because of the extremities in standard deviation, opening the lucrative case will drastically lower your bank offer.This leads to my conclusion that the game show is successful because they pick contestants who are greedy, and likely to take risks. There are so many people that want to be on the show that they can afford to be very selective in the process. By selecting people that have high risk profiles, they are able to make offers above the mean payout (probably so they don't look like they are cheating anyone). They know that contestants won't apply statistical reasoning to their decisions. In fact, game players are likely to make impulsive decisions based on crude, qualitative analysis. I'm not really paying anything to be on the show, as might as well go for it all, right? If that's your risk profile Golf Instruction David Leadbetter, then you have a better chance of getting on the show 21 Jump Street dvd boxset, but don't be surprised if you walk away with a lot less than you hoped. If you had a chance to pay a bid to play on the show, the outcomes would probably be a lot different. So if you offered $100,000 to play the game and got selected, by the numbers, you are already at an advantage. If you play the game by the numbers, and experience a little bit of luck, you could come out in positive territory. At least that's what the statistics of Deal or No Deal demonstrate.With $1, $5, and $300,000 on the board, her eyes are going to be on the $300 Glee complete collection,000. She doesn't realize that if she picked the $300,000 The Tudors box set, she would be stuck with $1 and $5. She may realize that there is a 1/3 chance she picks the $300,000, but she foolishly compares this to a drastically higher 2/3 chance of picking $1 or $5 (which she views as very beneficial). When you have a standard deviation that high, you're taking a HUGE risk. When playing this game, you have to take into consideration the worst case scenario and compare it to what the bank offers you. By rejecting the banks offer James Bond movies box set, you are playing with a lot of risk. There are very few episodes in which bank offers have increased throughout game play; they always increase, and then fall back down.In this scenario, there was a 100% chance of winning $80,000 compared to a 33% chance of winning $300,000. However Saw dvd set canada The O.C. complete series box set, you also have to realize there is a 67% chance that you win $5 or less. A rational person playing the game will compare the 100% chance of winning $80,000 to the 67% chance of winning $5 or less, and take the $80,000. However, contestants on the show, who are greedy and prone to risk-taking, will compare the $80 Curb Your Enthusiasm dvds compleat series Friday Night Lights complete series,000 guarantee to the 33% chance of winning $300,000. Thus, they go for the $300,000 and more likely than not, go home disappointed. There's a reason why it took 4 seasons to win $1 Cold Case tv series,000,000. In fact, that was a special episode where there were 5 million dollar cases, as opposed to just one. Jessica Robinson had $200,000 and $1,000,000 on the board with an offer of $561,000. She decided to go for it and won it all, a once in a blue moon occurrence.If you run simulations in a situation where there are low priced cases, and an extreme amount, the long run analysis of the statistics of Deal or No Deal will tell you to take the offer. Of course American Pie on dvd, contestants don't think like that and get lured into going for the highest amount remaining. That's the wrong mentality to have when playing the game. This game is very different than what you see in the casino because the makers of the game actually get to pick who plays through extensive interviews and selection process. At a casino, anyone can sit on a table and play. By having that luxury Jericho season dvd, the creators of Deal or No Deal are successfully able to take advantage of Americans who aren't afraid to take risks. Although many professions The Shield dvd boxset, especially finance, require high risk takers, financial professionals have the keen ability to understand the numbers The X Files dvd box set 1-9, statistics The Simpsons dvd set South Park dvd uk, and more importantly, utilize risk management.On a side note, there are other factors that tempt contestants to rejecting the bank's offer than just greed alone. The atmosphere of the show contributes to the decision making process. Just think about the last time you watched the show. Howie creates a very dramatic environment through his expressions, words, and countless repetition of the phrase "one million dollars." There is so much anticipation and eager when he calls the banker. The conversation is silent The Big Bang Theory seasons dvd, all they show is the shadow of the mysterious man sitting above the big gold board. Howie is very tactical in his word choice when talking to the banker, and after he hangs up the phone. Even the use of commercial breaks create more impatience, fervor Bones series box set, and desire. The game does an excellent job of capturing human weaknesses. The game uses models, instead of a digital board The Big Bang Theory dvd Canada, and personifies the banker as evil. This gets people to automatically dislike the banker and influence their decisions. Not to mention playing in front of a large studio audience and the eventual airing on national television. That's a lot of pressure.Next time you watch the show, look for all these occurrences, and watch greed take over. The expressions on people's faces are priceless when their offer decreases drastically from just one case. Knowing you could have gone home with $80 Will & Grace set,000 instead of $5 is definitely going to bother you. That's the difference between a Porsche 911 Carrera and a generic box of chocolates. However Arrested Development complete series, realize that it's a very fair, actually generous is a better word, game considering the bank offers are higher than the expected value, which most people don't recognize. The show's ability to still manage to "win" makes the game so fascinating. People would play more rationally if they could pick how much they were willing to play the game for since they have something to risk. Given this information Stargate SG1 complete dvd collection Brothers & Sisters dvd Australia, if you had the option, how much are you willing to bid to play to Deal or No Deal (assuming highest bidders get selected)?