This argument is only about risks. It doesn't prove anything. It simply states that you need to keep it in mind before living your whole life rejecting God.
We say that God exists, and that He has established a religion, on earth, to be followed by those who want happiness in eternal life. We say that the religion is true, and that those who refuse to accept God, and to love and obey Him, by their own free will, risk eternal separation from God.
This is what we sincerely believe. You are free to accept it or not.
If you do not accept it, and we are right, then you have risked your salvation.
If we are wrong, then we have lost nothing, because our souls will not be alive to worry about it. If we are reincarnated as an ant, and are then stepped on, then we will be dead, and not be worrying about it either.
You have to decide if the risk is worth it. It doesn't prove that we are right, but only that the risk is huge.